A recent poll by the Baani Centre for International Policy reveals that the Maldivian 2023 Presidential election continues to be highly unpredictable, as a significant percentage of voters remain undecided about their preferred candidate.
A recent telephone-based survey conducted on a random sample of Maldivian votes asked participants who they would vote for if the presidential election were to be held tomorrow.
The findings indicate that 45 percent of respondents are uncertain about who they will vote for. This suggests that the September election is still highly competitive, with no candidate having a clear advantage.
The results of the latest opinion poll conducted by the Baani Centre for International Policy show that President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih's popularity has slightly increased by 2 percent compared to the April poll.
However, this increase falls within the margin of error of 5 percent, so it is uncertain whether his numbers have actually improved.
According to the latest opinion poll results, former presidents Abdulla Yameen and Mohamed Nasheed maintained their respective support levels at 13 percent and 4 percent respectively from the April poll.
Yameen is currently serving a jail sentence and is therefore disqualified from running while Nasheed has yet to declare his candidacy and the polling data was collected before his MPs and supporters announced the formation of a new political party.
Jumhooree Party leader Gasim Ibrahim's polling numbers have slightly decreased from 3 percent in April to 2 percent in May. However, this decline falls within the margin of error of the poll, so it is uncertain whether his numbers have actually dropped.
The high number of undecided voters is probably due to the lack of clarity regarding the final list of candidates for the election. The Baani Center said that it is expected that as the campaign progresses and the candidate field becomes clearer, some of the currently undecided voters will express their preference for a particular candidate.
The Baani Centre for International Policy is a think tank based in the Maldives that provides a perspective on international issues from the viewpoint of small island states.
