It is at a crucial juncture in international geopolitics that the next BRICS meeting is being held in Kazan, Russia, on October 22–23, 2024. It comes on the back of a comparatively low-key Shanghai Cooperation Oragnisation summit at Islamabad earlier this month, which was neither attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi nor by President Xi Jinping or by President Vladimir Putin.
With two raging conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the latter always in a threatening mode of expansion, uncertainty in the US leadership, both Russia and China reluctant to play their roles in the Middle East, and an international economic situation of some concern, things aren’t obviously looking up.
Rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the ongoing war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity. Trade restrictions on Chinese exports could push up goods inflation, exacerbating trade tensions in an already fraught geopolitical environment.
It’s good to see that PM Narendra Modi will be there in person to get an optimum understanding of the international environment in all fields across the board. His attendance at BRICS summits has been regular because these have a certain undeniable significance in the social, economic, and geopolitical domains. The grouping represents a powerful set of emerging economies that can shape global governance.
With the addition of new members like Argentina, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, BRICS now accounts for 28.3 per cent of the world’s land area and 44.6 per cent of the global population. India seeks to strengthen trade and investment ties with other BRICS nations. The grouping’s combined GDP in nominal dollar terms stands at $29.06 trillion, accounting for 27.4 per cent of global GDP. India can benefit from increased economic collaboration, particularly in areas like energy, technology, and infrastructure development. In the multilateral engagement, India will get to diversify its trade relationships, access new markets and technologies, strengthen its position as a leading emerging economy, and simultaneously seek to enhance its global influence.
The New Development Bank (NDB), established by BRICS nations, has approved 53 projects worth about $15 billion, with India being a major beneficiary. This investment focuses on infrastructure development, renewable energy, and urban development, driving economic growth and job creation. The NDB has approved 17 projects in India, totalling over $4.7 billion, focusing on renewable energy (solar and wind power), transportation (road and rail), water and sanitation, and urban development. India played a key role in establishing the NDB and has benefitted considerably.
On the social front, BRICS has facilitated collaboration in education, healthcare, and cultural exchange. The grouping has initiated programs like the BRICS Network University, promoting student and faculty exchanges, and joint research projects. From a geopolitical angle, the generic benefits of BRICS that have travelled to Indian interests are related to the promotion of South-South cooperation, the provision of a platform for India to address pressing issues like terrorism, climate change, and sustainable development, and enhancing India’s global influence since BRICS membership amplifies India’s voice in other international forums. The summit and several engagement opportunities prior to it ensure that a choice remains for multilateral exchange of views on diverse subjects, especially in the current highly uncertain parameters guiding the world’s destiny.
Yet, it’s the geopolitical domain that takes away the focus and remains the flagship area of discussion. Building on the momentum from India’s G20 presidency in 2023, PM Modi will focus on enhancing BRICS cooperation in areas like trade, investment, and energy, which are all crucial for India’s development agenda for Viksit Bharat 2047. Since no bilateral issues will be addressed in the main agenda, discussions will centre around reforming international financial institutions, promoting sustainable development, and addressing economic inequality. India will champion the cause of the Global South cooperation through emphasis on cooperation among emerging economies, promoting development and economic growth through partnerships and knowledge sharing.
PM Modi will also be attending the G20 Summit in the Brazilian capital city of Rio de Janeiro on November 18–19, 2024. The theme of the 2024 summit is ‘Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet’. He will probably therefore be discussing several key areas of convergence between the two summits. Among these will be the effective implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals Agenda 2030, ensuring adequate funding, and restructuring global economic institutions.
On trade, it will be strengthening the rule-based global trading system, completing the Doha Development Agenda, and promoting greater mobility of skilled professionals. Climate change will also form a part of the agendas with facilitation of climate finance, technology transfer to developing countries, and enhancing research on clean energy. These areas of convergence reflect the shared interests and goals of the G20 and BRICS nations, aiming to promote global economic growth, stability, and cooperation.
All eyes will, however, be on the bilaterals on the sidelines of the summit. Prime Minister Modi is a key attraction at many such events and would probably engage with his host President Putin in a one-on-one. Being his second visit to Russia this year after the India-Russia Annual Summit and his continuing good rapport with the Russian President, the world has come to expect the Indian PM to give sage advice to his Russian counterpart as regards the necessity to discontinue the Ukraine war. Although this will not be a priority on the Indian agenda, the Prime Minister could lay the seeds of something positive on this front. The Indian energy security and continuation of the defence relationship will definitely form part of the agenda.
There is yet no indication of a possibility of a Modi-Xi meeting on the sidelines. If it does happen, it would probably take away much of the sheen of the rest of the conference, at least for Indian news media channels. If PM Modi and President Xi Jinping meet in a bilateral at the BRICS summit, several key issues could be on the table. Trade and Economic Cooperation will be a significant agenda item.
With India’s growing trade deficit with China, PM Modi may push for increased Chinese investment in India, particularly in sectors like infrastructure and technology. Border disputes are a major point of contention, as tensions between India and China remain along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). It would be possible that the two leaders could deliver a surprise by seeking to ease tensions and find common ground on border management.
China is aware that there is a segment of thinking in India that is against pushing the Indo-US agenda too hard and simultaneously does not wish to pursue an animosity agenda against China. In recent months, China has made some moves to communicate its willingness to pursue a relationship of greater cooperation with India, leading to better stability. These are early times to speculate because the desired meetings may never happen at all. We can only hope they do. (Article by Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain of F.)
